Fuel prices are starting to fall. Here is how far it has spread.
Over the last two days we have seen prices drop at forecourts we were not expecting to: a 5p cut on petrol at a Tesco in Braintree, 7p at the Sainsbury's down the road. So we went through the data. Since Saturday, forecourts have cut diesel three times as often as they have raised it.
Published 13 October 2026 · Fuel Finder UK team
What we saw this week
- Tesco Braintree (Great Notley). Petrol went from 173.9p to 168.9p a litre at 3:58pm on Monday. That is 5p.
- Sainsbury's Braintree (Mount Road). Petrol went from 172.9p to 165.9p at 7:52am this morning, a 7p cut. Diesel fell 2p, to 196.9p.
Cuts of 5p or more are rare. Most price changes are a penny or two. We wanted to know whether these two were a one-off or part of something wider.
Three diesel cuts for every rise
- Cut1,181 · 14%
- Put up375 · 4%
- No change6,807 · 81%
Source: Fuel Finder UK analysis of official Fuel Finder price data.
Of the 1,556 forecourts that changed their diesel price in three days, 1,181 went down and 375 went up. Petrol was the same story, if a little less one-sided.
- Cut968 · 12%
- Put up511 · 6%
- No change6,773 · 82%
Source: Fuel Finder UK analysis of official Fuel Finder price data.
968 forecourts cut petrol and 511 raised it. Most of the cuts were small: 89% of the diesel cuts and 85% of the petrol cuts were 1p or 2p. But 122 diesel cuts and 138 petrol cuts were 3p or more, and 22 and 32 were 5p or more.
It is the supermarkets leading
See the numbers
| Brand | Forecourts | Cut | Raised | Average 10 Oct | Average 13 Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sainsbury's | 315 | 170 | 4 | 196.9p | 196.1p |
| Morrisons | 341 | 145 | 1 | 198.6p | 198.1p |
| Esso | 1,450 | 227 | 32 | 201.0p | 200.8p |
| BP | 1,084 | 168 | 52 | 202.1p | 202.0p |
| Jet | 316 | 47 | 8 | 199.0p | 198.9p |
| Gulf | 290 | 35 | 8 | 200.2p | 199.9p |
| Texaco | 495 | 59 | 14 | 198.7p | 198.5p |
| Murco | 166 | 18 | 5 | 199.4p | 199.3p |
| Independents and smaller brands | 1,699 | 174 | 37 | 198.8p | 198.7p |
| Shell | 904 | 63 | 41 | 201.9p | 201.9p |
| Asda | 784 | 52 | 170 | 199.1p | 199.4p |
| Tesco | 506 | 23 | 3 | 197.6p | 197.5p |
Source: Fuel Finder UK analysis of official Fuel Finder price data. Brands with 150 or more forecourts.
- Sainsbury's. It cut diesel at 170 of 315 forecourts and petrol at 219 of 315. Its petrol average fell from 172.8p to 171.6p and diesel from 196.9p to 196.1p.
- Morrisons. It cut diesel at 145 of 341 forecourts and petrol at 88. Only 1 raised diesel.
- Tesco. It cut petrol at 84 of 506 forecourts and raised it at 0. Diesel moved less: 23 cuts and 3 rises.
- Esso and BP. Both cut diesel more than they raised it, Esso at 227 forecourts and BP at 168, but from the dearest averages.
- Asda is going the other way. It raised diesel at 170 of 784 forecourts and cut it at 52. Its average went from 199.1p to 199.4p. Petrol is the same: 178 rises, 70 cuts.
Shell has barely moved: 63 cuts and 41 rises on diesel, with its average at 201.9p.
The pace picked up on Monday
The last time we compared two days, the weekend after diesel hit £2, there were five rises for every cut. Read that comparison. This is the reverse, and it has built up each day.
| Day | Diesel cuts | Diesel rises |
|---|---|---|
| Saturday 10 October (from 1:39pm) | 114 | 12 |
| Sunday 11 October | 76 | 31 |
| Monday 12 October | 621 | 124 |
| Tuesday 13 October (to 10:56am) | 368 | 205 |
Standard diesel (B7). Counted by the time the retailer last updated the price, only where the price differs from Saturday's. Source: Fuel Finder UK analysis of official Fuel Finder price data.
Monday was the biggest day: 621 cuts against 124 rises. Tuesday has had 368 cuts by late morning, and also more rises than any other day, 205. Asda, which is raising, accounts for many of those.
What has not changed yet
The UK average has not fallen far. It is 199.8p a litre for diesel and 174.7p for petrol. On Saturday it was 199.9p and 174.8p. A penny or two off at around one forecourt in seven only moves a national average a little.
The better sign is in the count. 2,650 forecourts now charge £2 or more for diesel. On Saturday it was 2,818, and on Friday 2 October it was 2,901. 2,389 are at exactly 199.9p.
Is this a trend?
It is a change of direction, and the evidence is three days long. We would not call it more than that.
- It is broad. Every big brand except Asda has cut diesel at more forecourts than it has raised it.
- It is not yet deep. Most cuts are 1p or 2p, and the national average is down around a tenth of a penny.
- We cannot say why. Our data shows what forecourts charge, not what they pay. The wholesale market is the usual driver, and we have not seen a source for this week that we can cite. Read what the Russian diesel deal could mean for the background.
- It could reverse. Diesel hit £2 on 2 October and the average has barely moved since. Asda is still raising.
We will compare again in a few days. The UK average page is updated daily.
What it means when you fill up
- Check before you go. 18% of forecourts changed their petrol price in three days. The cheapest one near you may not be the one it was on Saturday.
- Sainsbury's and Morrisons are the place to look first. They have cut the most, and Sainsbury's is now the cheapest big brand for both fuels, at 196.1p for diesel and 171.6p for petrol.
- If your tank allows, there is no rush. We cannot promise more cuts, but prices are moving down at far more forecourts than up.
- Spot the cut near you. Every station near you, cheapest first, on a list or a map.
- Hear when it drops. On iPhone and iPad, Price Drop Alerts tell you when a favourite station cuts its price.
- See which way a price is heading. Every station has a 30-day price history.
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How we counted
We took the official Fuel Finder price data at 1:39pm on Saturday 10 October and at 10:56am on Tuesday 13 October 2026, and compared the two, forecourt by forecourt. 8,363 forecourts had a standard diesel (B7) price between 100p and 300p in both, and 8,252 had a standard petrol (E10) price.
A cut is a forecourt whose price in the second set is lower than in the first. A forecourt that went down and came back up in between counts as no change. The timing of each change comes from the time the retailer last updated the price, counted only where the price is different.
The limits: two moments three days apart, the second at about 11am on a Tuesday. Prices are still moving. The Braintree figures are for the two forecourts named and are not typical, and Asda re-stamps prices that have not changed, which is why we count only forecourts whose price is actually different.