Trump's Russian diesel deal: will it bring UK diesel prices down?
On Friday Donald Trump said Russia will supply diesel to the US and to "the global marketplace". UK diesel has sat at about £2 a litre for a week. Here is what the deal is, why none of that diesel can be sold here, and what UK prices have done since diesel first hit £2.
Published 10 October 2026 · Fuel Finder UK team
What Trump announced
After a call with Vladimir Putin on Friday 9 October, Trump wrote that Russia "will immediately supply over 300,000 tons of diesel fuel to the American and global marketplace". He said 500,000 tons would follow in November and 1 million tons after that. A further 3 million tons was promised later, which Investing.com reported as "subject to refinery conditions". It put the whole package at about 36 million barrels.
- Sanctions eased. The Associated Press reported that the US Treasury issued a licence so that US sanctions will not apply, until April 2027, to Russian diesel loaded onto tankers as of Friday.
- Ukraine is angry. President Volodymyr Zelensky called the deal a "gift" to Putin.
- The reason is the US election. The average US diesel price was $6.23 a gallon on Friday, according to AAA, after a record $6.52 on 22 September. The US midterm elections are on 3 November.
Can Russian diesel come to the UK?
No. The UK has a long-standing ban on importing oil and refined products directly from Russia. Since 20 May 2026 it has also banned fuel refined from Russian crude in other countries.
There is one gap. A temporary licence still lets diesel and jet fuel made from Russian crude in other countries into the UK. The government has said that licence will end on 1 January 2027 at the latest.
So the deal cannot put Russian diesel in UK tanks. What it could do is add diesel to the world market, and that is where the UK buys its fuel. The UK imports nearly 55% of the diesel it uses.
Is it enough to move prices?
Probably not by much, and not soon.
- It is small next to demand. The BBC worked out that the first 300,000 tons is roughly half of what the US uses in a single day.
- Russia may not be able to deliver. Analysts quoted by Investing.com questioned whether Russia can supply these volumes, after Ukrainian strikes on its refineries and its own limits on diesel exports.
- The last big move did not shift much. On 2 October the G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of emergency oil, diesel first. A week later, the BBC wrote that the promised European diesel release "hasn't moved energy prices significantly". Read what the G7 release was meant to do.
What UK diesel prices have done in a week
We compared every forecourt's diesel price at 2:51pm on Friday 2 October, the day the UK average passed £2, with 1:39pm today.
- Cut diesel2,002 · 24%
- Put diesel up1,589 · 19%
- No change4,766 · 57%
Source: Fuel Finder UK analysis of official Fuel Finder price data.
- The average has not moved. 200.0p on 2 October, 200.1p on 4 October, 199.9p on 8 October and 199.9p today.
- Cuts now outnumber rises. Last weekend it was five rises for every cut. Over the whole week, 2,002 forecourts cut diesel and 1,589 raised it. Most cuts were 1p or 2p.
- Fewer forecourts are over £2. 2,818 today, down from 2,901 on 2 October. 2,350 sit at exactly 199.9p.
The brands are going in opposite directions
| Brand | Forecourts | Raised | Cut | Average 2 Oct | Average 10 Oct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sainsbury's | 315 | 13 | 233 | 197.6p | 196.9p |
| Texaco | 494 | 51 | 148 | 199.2p | 198.7p |
| Gulf | 289 | 23 | 103 | 200.8p | 200.1p |
| Jet | 316 | 23 | 75 | 199.4p | 199.0p |
| Morrisons | 341 | 51 | 90 | 198.7p | 198.6p |
| Esso | 1,446 | 139 | 280 | 201.3p | 201.0p |
| BP | 1,086 | 201 | 241 | 202.3p | 202.1p |
| Asda | 784 | 131 | 132 | 199.1p | 199.1p |
| Tesco | 509 | 279 | 19 | 196.9p | 197.6p |
| Shell | 905 | 516 | 105 | 200.9p | 201.9p |
| Independents and smaller brands | 1,872 | 162 | 576 | 199.5p | 198.8p |
Standard diesel (B7). Forecourts with a price in both 2 October and 10 October data. Source: Fuel Finder UK analysis of official Fuel Finder price data.
- Sainsbury's is cutting. It cut diesel at 233 of its 315 forecourts, and its average fell from 197.6p to 196.9p. It is now the cheapest big brand for diesel.
- Shell is going the other way. It raised diesel at 516 of its 905 forecourts. Its average rose a full penny, from 200.9p to 201.9p.
- Tesco is still climbing. It raised diesel at 279 of 509 forecourts, from 196.9p to 197.6p.
- The gap is 5.2p a litre. Sainsbury's averages 196.9p and BP 202.1p. On a 55-litre fill that is £2.86.
What it means when you fill up
- Do not wait for Russian diesel. It cannot be sold here, and any knock-on effect on world prices is weeks away at best.
- Do not wait for the G7 release either. A week on, the UK average has not moved.
- Prices near you are moving, both ways. 43% of forecourts changed their diesel price this week. The cheapest one near you last week may not be the cheapest today.
- Find the forecourts that have cut. Every station near you, cheapest first, from the official data every 30 minutes.
- Check Sainsbury's and the rest in one tap. Filter by brand to see who is cheapest where you are.
- Hear when it drops. On iPhone and iPad, Price Drop Alerts tell you when a favourite forecourt cuts its price.
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How we counted
We took the official Fuel Finder price data at 2:51pm on Friday 2 October and at 1:39pm on Saturday 10 October 2026 and compared them, forecourt by forecourt. 8,357 forecourts had a standard diesel (B7) price between 100p and 300p in both. A forecourt that went up and came back down in between counts as no change.
The limits: this is two moments eight days apart. It shows where prices ended up, not every move in between. For today's figures, see the UK average price page.
Sources
- BBC News: Trump's shock Russia deal highlights mounting pressure to curb fuel prices, 9 October 2026
- Al Jazeera: Trump announces Russian diesel deal amid soaring US fuel prices, 9 October 2026
- Fortune (AP): Trump strikes Russian diesel deal with Putin, 9 October 2026
- Investing.com via Yahoo Finance: Trump reaches Russian diesel supply deal, 9 October 2026
- GOV.UK: UK to set end date for imports of Russian diesel and jet fuel via third countries, 12 June 2026
- ITV News: Average UK diesel price passes £2 for first time, 2 October 2026