Budget

Budget on 28 October: what each fuel option would save you at the pump

Chancellor John Healey's first Budget is 11 days away, and drivers are waiting to hear whether fuel duty goes up in January as planned. Nothing has been announced. Here is what has been reported, what has been asked for, and what each option would be worth on a full tank at today's prices.

Published 17 October 2026 · Fuel Finder UK team

The short version: duty is due to go up 3p a litre on 1 January and 2p on 1 March. The Financial Times reports that Healey is expected to drop both rises. If he does, that saves £1.98 on a 55-litre fill from January and £3.30 from March, compared with the plan. A 10p duty cut would save £6.60. Each point off VAT would save about 80p on petrol. None of this is confirmed until the Budget.

What is planned now

Fuel duty is 52.95p a litre until 31 December 2026. GOV.UK's schedule, published on 22 May, then has it at 55.95p from 1 January 2027 and 57.95p from 1 March 2027. With VAT, that is 3.6p more at the pump in January and 6.0p more by March.

All else equal, that would take today's UK averages from 174.2p to about 177.8p for petrol and from 199.2p to about 202.8p for diesel on 1 January, and to about 180.2p and 205.2p from 1 March. That is a simple sum, not a forecast: oil prices and retailer margins will move prices in both directions as well.

What has been reported

The rises may be dropped. On 14 October the Financial Times reported, according to Reuters, that Healey is expected to drop the planned 3p rise in January and the 2p rise in March. That is an expectation from people briefed on the plans, not a confirmed measure.
A VAT cut is an option. On 11 October Briefs.co reported, citing unnamed people, that a time-limited VAT cut on petrol and keeping the duty freeze are both being considered. No size was given for any cut.
The Chancellor has hinted at help. On 29 September Healey said he was concerned about pump prices and that decisions would be made “in the round at the Budget”.
A history of freezes. No government has raised fuel duty since 2011, according to Reuters.

What each option is worth

These are the savings against the current plan for the options being discussed, worked out at today's prices. They assume the whole change is passed on at the pump.

Option	Pence a litre	55 litres	Who
Stop the January rise	3.6p	£1.98	Reported as expected
Stop the January and March rises	6.0p	£3.30	Reported as expected; AA asks for the 5p cut to stay
Cut duty by 10p	12.0p	£6.60	FairFuelUK asks for it now
Keep the 5p cut and cut a further 5p	12.0p	£6.60	AA asks for the further 5p to be considered
Cut VAT on petrol by 1 point	1.5p	80p	Reported as an option, no size given
Cut VAT on diesel by 1 point	1.7p	91p	Not reported so far

Duty changes include 20% VAT. One point of VAT is 1/120 of the pump price: 174.2p for petrol and 199.2p for diesel. Prices: Fuel Finder UK analysis of official Fuel Finder data, 6:54pm on 17 October 2026.

Stopping the rises is worth the most in the long run. By March the plan would add 6p a litre. Dropping both rises means that never happens.
A 10p cut is the biggest single move asked for. It would save £6.60 a fill, about double the cost of the full March rise.
VAT cuts add up quickly. A 5-point cut would take about 7p off petrol, but nobody has said how big a cut is being considered.

Where prices are today

At 6:54pm on Saturday 17 October 2026 the UK average was 174.2p for petrol (7,863 forecourts) and 199.2p for diesel (7,966). A week ago, on 10 October, they were 174.8p and 199.9p. Prices have eased a little, not fallen far. Read why diesel is 25p more than petrol.

What it means for you

Do not rush to fill up before 1 January. The planned January rise is worth 3.6p a litre, and it may not happen.
Where you fill matters more. On 10 October the gap between the cheapest big diesel brand and the dearest was 5.2p a litre, bigger than the January rise. Read who is cutting and who is not.
We will update this on Budget day. Check back on 28 October for what was announced.

How Fuel Finder UK helps

See what you pay today. Every forecourt near you, cheapest first, from the official data every 30 minutes.
Spot the cheaper pump. A few pence between stations is worth more than most Budget changes.
Hear when it drops. On iPhone and iPad, Price Drop Alerts tell you when a favourite forecourt cuts its price.

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How we worked it out

Duty rates are from GOV.UK. Budget expectations are from the press reports linked below and are not confirmed. The pence-per-litre savings add 20% VAT to any duty change, and one point of VAT is 1/120 of the pump price. The 55-litre fill matches the other posts on this site. Prices are the average across forecourts with a price between 100p and 300p in the official Fuel Finder data.

The limits: retailers do not always pass a tax change on in full or straight away, and wholesale prices will move. This shows what each option is worth on paper, not what pump prices will do.

Sources

GOV.UK: Amended Fuel Duty rates, 2026 to 2027, 22 May 2026
Cyprus Mail (Reuters): UK finance minister Healey set to pay for Budget measures without more borrowing, FT reports, 14 October 2026
Briefs.co: Healey readies short-term cost relief as Oct. 28 Budget nears, 11 October 2026
Reuters via Yahoo Finance: Options for UK finance minister Healey in October 28 Budget, 7 October 2026
Brit Brief: Fuel duty update, Chancellor hints at help as prices soar, 29 September 2026